These days, we often notice some days Bitcoin goes 5% up and another day 7% down. It’s like if someone invested $10,000 in BTC, it could easily become $10,500 or $9,300 within a day. But what if I say if we ignore the daily, weekly, monthly, and even yearly volatility, the chart shows us a stable growth over a long run? I’m talking about the 4-year moving average; this MA perfectly removes all the noise from Bitcoin, showcasing a healthy growth of its value.
Let’s take a look at the charts below and try to focus on the 4-year MA:
As we can see in the above image, the previous 3 falls are taking strong support in the 4-year MA. If we only look at the candlesticks, Bitcoin is looking very volatile even in monthly candles.
Now try to only focus on the 4-year MA, the strong support of Bitcoin. Here is the chart below without candlesticks so you can focus on the moving average only.
This is what I want to show you. In today’s world, even after 16 years, people still advise staying away from crypto because of its volatility. But this volatility is only for those who try to time the market, buying and selling every day in the hope of some profits. Of course there are few individuals who take trading as a profession. But 99% just lose money in day trading, plus pay taxes on profit and transaction fees for every trade.
Bitcoin considered as blue chip in crypto market. So, as an investor of Bitcoin, you should aware that it’s actually not volatile as other persons says. They just look at the daily chart with short term profit. If you understand bitcoin, belief in it, have guts to invest few portions of your monthly salary or income without timing the market, in the next 7 to 10 years, you will far ahead of the crowd, who says bitcoin is risky, it’s volatile, it has no intrinsic value.
Remember what Warren Buffett said:
Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.
Most of the people even today are fearful about investing in Bitcoin. What does it mean this time? Who became greedy? In coming years, they could have been on the path to becoming wealthy individuals.
If we take the 4-year moving average as the fair price of Bitcoin, it would be easy to invest for the long term. Even though the price goes up and down in the short term, it tries to manage its overvaluation with a significant fall every 1-2 years.
During journaling, I found the latest article on CoinDesk about “Bitcoin Dipped Below ‘Fair Value’ for First Time in 2 Years, History Says 132% Gains Next 12 Months”. History repeats itself, and that’s what is happening right now. That’s why long-term holders are always on the path to greater wealth over time. Actually, I could say time is money when investing in Bitcoin. The more time you invested, the more chances of gain and decreased risk over the years.
Are you a long-term holder confident in Bitcoin? Or a short-term trader who pursues full-time trading. Let’s know. Also, what are your thoughts after reading this article? Does Bitcoin still look as volatile for LTHs as you might have thought before?
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